Bruce Desmarais "Forecasting the Locational Dynamics of Transnational Terrorism: A Network Analytic Approach"

    Abstract: Efforts to combat and prevent transnational terrorism rely, to a great extent, on the effective allocation of security resources. Critical to the success of this allocation process is the identification of the likely geopolitical sources and targets of terrorism. We construct the network of transnational terrorist attacks, in which source (sender) and target (receiver) countries share a directed edge, and we evaluate a network analytic approach to forecasting the geopolitical sources and targets of terrorism. We integrate a deterministic, similarity-based, link prediction framework into a probabilistic modeling approach in order to develop an edge-forecasting method. Using a database of over 12,000 transnational terrorist attacks occurring between 1968 and 2002, we show that probabilistic link prediction is not only capable of accurate forecasting during a terrorist campaign, but is a promising approach to forecasting the onset of terrorist hostilities between a source and a target.

    Bio: Bruce received his Ph.D. in political science from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in summer 2010. In fall 2010, he started as an assistant professor in the Deptartment of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. He joined UMass as one of the core faculty members of the Computational Social Science Initiative. Bruce's recent research focuses on the development and application of methods for the analysis of political networks. Substantive applications of network analysis include international conflict, defense alliances, terrorist events, legislative collaboration, and intra-governmental communication networks.


    /groups/cssi/search/index.rss?tag=hotlist/groups/cssi/search/?tag=hotWhat’s HotHotListHot!?tag=hot1/groups/cssi/sidebar/HotListterrieTerrie Kellogg2014-09-25 15:46:50+00:002014-09-25 15:46:50updated5terrieTerrie Kellogg2014-09-25 15:44:37+00:002014-09-25 15:44:37updated4Added tag - hotcscfCSCF2014-09-25 15:44:35+00:002014-09-25 15:44:35addTag3cscfCSCF2014-09-25 14:56:43+00:002014-09-25 14:56:43updated2First createdcscfCSCF2014-09-25 14:55:46+00:002014-09-25 14:55:46created1wiki2014-09-25T15:46:50+00:00groups/cssi/wiki/5f1a4False2013 Archives/groups/cssi/wiki/5f1a4/2013_Archives.htmlTerrie Kellogg5 updates2013 Archives This is a collection of videos of the Cross-Departmental Seminar Series events. February 1, 2013 - Brian F. Schaffner "Inequality and Repr...Falseterrie2014-09-25T15:46:50+00:00hot/groups/cssi/search/index.rss?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcomelist/groups/cssi/search/?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcomeRecent ChangesRecentChangesListUpdates?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcome0/groups/cssi/sidebar/RecentChangesListmodifiedDateallRecent ChangesRecentChangesListUpdateswiki/welcomeNo recent changes.reverse5search